I make NO apology for the "West of Offa's Dyke" nature of this post. To the activists enthusiasts supporters voters members and elected officials in the rest of this United Kingdom I seek your patience and your understanding. For while the beaches of the area around the Cinque Ports were once the most likely battle ground for the future of this country, it is time to point out that there is, right now, a different front into which we must pour men and women, equipment, time, fighting spirit - and yes, money.
In nine months time the Welsh Assembly must grovel to us the voters west of Offas Dyke for the approval to ride roughshod over us for another four years.
Sixty seats are up for fighting over. Forty are decided in First Past The Post elections just like Westminster. Twenty are decided on a D'Hondt formula. Two ballot papers are sent out. In one, you vote for the man, or woman, to represent your Welsh Assembly Constituency and the top one person in forty constituencies gets the seat.
On the other you vote for the PARTY. Up To Four Names, in Five Regions, One Vote.
When the dust settles at the polling stations they count up every CONSTITUENCY VOTE for each party. THEN THEY ADD the votes on the REGIONAL SEAT PAPER. THEN THEY DIVIDE those numbers by the number of seats you already have, plus one.
I will have a calculation done soon that will show you what needs to be done to put OUR people in that chamber. Using figures from the last General Election where we stood candidates I will make assumptions that each BNP voter would also vote BNP on a party list and see how that flutters when you run it up a flag.
But here is the fact of the matter.
We cannot hope to succeed in the constituencies. But we can give the winners a hell of a pasting just as we did last year. And every constituency vote means one more in our d'Hondt calculation.
So in an ideal world I say we need:-
FORTY SKIRMISHERS to take on the main parties in every welsh assembly constituency seat.
FIVE HEAVY WEAPONS at the top of the regional Lists, and FIFTEEN MORE underneath them.
AND the wheelbarrow of cash to fund their deposits and fight a decent campaign.
THE PRIZE: At least three seats in the Welsh Assembly with OUR people in them.
THE COST OF FAILURE: Unimaginable.
THE CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE: Unthinkable.
Right then. I've got some work to do. Watch This Space
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 10 August 2010 13:03 )