Cyprus - a bit of a stumbling block for Turkey

There is genuine concern amongst nationalist on the repercussions that would ensue if Turkey were to join the EU. With free travel and work for citizens of member countries then Turkey’s admission to the EU could in theory open up the EU club to 74 Million Turks with an anticipated increase to 100 million before the end of the century.

With 99% of the population registered as Moslems one need not speculate on the spectacular shift in European social and religious demographics which are taking a pounding right now if they were to join the EU.

But there is every possibility that Turkey will NOT be invited into the Pan European Federation.

Phedon Nicolaides of the European institute of public administration said “the real problem in Cyprus is not that the status quo is unsustainable, on the contrary it is that its virtually impossible to move away from the status quo” The result of the recent elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus mean that the status quo that has divided for the island for 36 years will become permanent.

Turkey is the invader; it illegally occupies and governs Northern Cyprus. Simply, if there is no agreement that reunites Cyprus in some sort of political arrangement then Greece’s veto on Turkish entry into the EU will become permanent. And if Turkey sees there is no hope of joining the EU then it will feel no longer bound by the accepted standards of behaviour of the other EU member countries.

The seeds of conflict were sown when the EOKA guerilla movement launched a campaign to drive the British out in the 1950s. EOKA were not seeking independence for Cyprus but rather “enosis” or union with Greece This move in itself angered Turkey as the Greek mainland is 800km to the west and the Turkish coast is only 75 Km away to the East. In 1960 Great Britain proposed a deal on Cyprus that gave the island by bi-national independence. This gave the Turkish speaking minority 30% of the seats in parliament and a veto on any changes to its constitution.

Even though Turkey, Britain and Greece agreed with this settlement it lasted only a very short time as EOKA who were still a strong force on the island were still determined on “enosis” with Greece. War erupted in 1963 and the Turkish Cypriots were driven into enclaves and besieged by Greek forces. At this time The UN stepped in with a peacekeeping force and remained for 11 years.

In 1974 the Greek military junta backed a bloody coup in Cyprus. The elected government was disbanded and replaced by a group of EOKA fighters who promised to unify the island with Greece. Turkey called on Britain, a member who was guarantor of this agreement to fulfil its duty and intervene. It refused.

The Turks invaded and 150,000 Greeks Cypriots fled south before the Turkish invaders. Meanwhile 50,000 Turkish Cypriots living in the south sought refuge behind Turkish lines, and when the fighting had finished there an involuntary partition with the Turkish Cypriots in the northern half of Cyprus and the Greek Cypriots in the south.

The Greek Cypriots had played the game with a losers hand by bidding too high and that is the situation at the moment. Now here is where it gets interesting. A UN backed proposal to reunify the island was supported by the Turkish Cypriots but rejected by the Greek Cypriots in referendums on both sides in 2004. Negotiations have continued but there was no result.

The Turkish Cypriots who were the minority were longer poorer than their Greek counterparts and started to lose interest in reunification.

On 18th April fervent Nationalist Dervis Eroglu was elected president of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The Island will remain permanently divided along ethnic lines and it will be many years before any other countries formally recognise The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which means in essence Turkey will NEVER join the European Union without a political agreement on Cyprus but the Greek veto on Cyprus is Permanent and at the same time Greece’s leverage over Turkey will vanish once Turkey abandons its quest to join the EU.

Turkey unlike the UK is fiercely nationalistic, not only will it refuse to bow to demands by the EU to clean up its human rights act it will never admit to the genocide of the Armenians. So it appears that the present Turkish Government would not do anything to disturb the status quo in Cyprus.

Greek Cypriots might believe that EU membership is an adequate guarantee of their security, but not so. In a future where Turkey is not restrained by the prospect of EU membership, Greek Cypriots security will depend on Turkish goodwill.